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Startup vs Big Tech Offer

4-year total comp: startup equity upside vs guaranteed RSUs.

Big Tech offer
Startup offer
Big Tech 4-yr total
$1,791,990
cash $1,062,000 + equity $729,990
Startup 4-yr total (EV)
$992,000
cash $812,000 + equity EV $180,000
Mission tax (big tech wins by)
$799,990
what you give up to join the startup
Reverse calc
Startup must exit at $3,629,593,126 for your equity EV to match the Big Tech offer.

Compare that to the startup's current valuation ($50,000,000) — a 72.6× outcome at success rate 45%.

Heads up — Estimate only — not legal or financial advice. Equity outcomes depend on terms not modeled here (preferences, board control, vesting acceleration, secondary restrictions).
AI explainer

Ask anything about your result

The math above is deterministic. AI explains what it means — it never recalculates the numbers.

About

Comparing a startup offer to a Google / Meta / Microsoft offer is hard because the math is different: one is mostly cash + liquid RSUs, the other is cash + lottery-ticket equity. This calculator runs a probability-weighted 4-year total comp comparison so you can see when the startup is actually a better expected deal — and when you're paying a $200k 'mission tax' to be there.

How it works

  1. 01Enter base, signing bonus, target bonus, and equity for both offers.
  2. 02For the big-tech side, enter expected RSU stock appreciation per year.
  3. 03For the startup, enter current valuation, your ownership %, expected dilution, and outcome probabilities.
  4. 04We compute probability-weighted 4-year total comp and the gap.

Examples

Senior eng, $400k vs $250k+0.1%

Big tech: $1.6M over 4 years. Startup base+bonus: $1.0M. Equity expected value: ~$60–120k. Gap: ~$500k 'mission tax' to take the startup.

Early employee swing

Joining a $20M seed with 1% pre-dilution can flip the math if your conviction on outcome > 30% chance of a $500M+ exit. Below that, big tech almost always wins on EV.

FAQ

Why does big tech usually win on EV?+
Liquid RSUs vest predictably, public stock has real upside, and there's no failure case. Most startups fail or have flat outcomes, which crushes the expected value.
When does a startup beat big tech?+
Pre-seed/seed with meaningful ownership (>0.5%) and high personal conviction, or late-stage near-IPO with significant grants. Series A/B at 0.05–0.1% is usually the worst risk-adjusted offer.
Should I value learning / impact?+
Yes — but quantify it. If the startup is worth $100k/yr to you in learning and network, add $400k to its 4-year value. If it's not, don't pretend it is.

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