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What's My Equity Worth?

Model what your startup shares could be worth across exit scenarios.

Exit scenarios
ScenarioProb %Exit $
Fail / $0
$0
Acquihire
Modest
Strong
Unicorn+
Expected value (after tax)
$63,019
probability-weighted
Ownership at exit
0.0700%
0.1000% today
AMT if you exercise today
$0
cash needed in addition to strike
Exercise cost
$10,000
cash to buy shares
If failure
-$10,000
lose exercise cost
If acquihire
$5,393
gross $7,500
If modest exit
$68,305
gross $95,000
If strong exit
$361,210
gross $515,000
If unicorn+
$1,414,885
gross $2,090,000
AI explainer

Ask anything about your result

The math above is deterministic. AI explains what it means — it never recalculates the numbers.

About

You got an offer with X options at a Y strike — but what is that actually worth? This tool models your equity across realistic outcomes: the company fails, gets acquihired, has a modest exit, a strong exit, or becomes a unicorn. It accounts for future dilution, your strike price, and a rough capital-gains haircut so you can decide whether the equity portion is meaningful or marketing.

How it works

  1. 01Enter the number of options or RSUs granted and your strike price (0 for RSUs).
  2. 02Enter the company's current post-money valuation and fully-diluted shares — or just paste the % ownership.
  3. 03Set expected future dilution from rounds before exit (typical: 10–20% per round).
  4. 04We multiply your final ownership by each scenario valuation, subtract your strike cost, and apply a flat long-term capital gains haircut.

Examples

Series A engineer, 0.1%

0.1% at a $50M company, 40% dilution before exit → 0.06% final. At a $1B exit that's $600k pre-tax, ~$450k after LTCG — but the probability-weighted expected value is closer to $40–80k.

Seed hire, 0.5%

0.5% at a $10M seed, 50% dilution → 0.25% final. Failure at 60% probability drags the expected value down to ~$25–60k depending on upside scenarios.

FAQ

What's a realistic failure probability?+
For seed: 70–80%. Series A: 50–60%. Series B+: 30–40%. Most equity ends up worth $0 — that's the base rate to anchor against.
Should I count my equity as part of comp?+
Discount it heavily. Many people use 'expected value / 4 years' as a rough annual equity comp number — usually a fraction of what recruiters quote.
What about secondary sales?+
Late-stage companies sometimes allow employee tenders at a discount to the preferred price. Treat as a bonus, not a guarantee.

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