⚠ Shares ≠ ownership. With 16,000,000 fully diluted, your 40,000 shares = 0.2500% today. Exercising costs $60,000 cash up front.
Outcome scenarios
ScenarioProb %Valuation
Modest exit
Base case
Strong outcome
Unicorn+
Failure: 10% (auto-balances)
Heads up — Estimate only — not legal or financial advice. Equity outcomes depend on terms not modeled here (preferences, board control, vesting acceleration, secondary restrictions).
Expected value (after tax)
$609,875
prob-weighted, ~30% blended LTCG
Pre-tax expected
$931,250
Exercise cost
$60,000
cash needed up front
Ownership at exit
0.1250%
At modest exit
$62,500
At base case
$312,500
At strong
$1,250,000
At unicorn+
$12,500,000
AI explainer
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The math above is deterministic. AI explains what it means — it never recalculates the numbers.
About
Translate a startup equity offer into a probability-weighted dollar value. Set your ownership %, expected dilution, and a distribution over outcomes — see expected value across scenarios.
How it works
- 01Final ownership = current ownership × (1 − future dilution%).
- 02Expected $ = final ownership × Σ (probability × outcome valuation).
- 03Adjust probabilities to match the company's stage realism — most early-stage startups fail or modest-exit.
Examples
Series A engineer
0.25% ownership, 50% future dilution → 0.125% at exit. Weighted across {modest $50M, base $250M, strong $1B, unicorn $10B} = a few hundred thousand expected.
Seed founder
20% ownership, 60% future dilution → 8%. Same scenario distribution = $5M+ expected, with massive variance.
FAQ
What probabilities are realistic?+
Industry data: ~70% of seed startups fail (return < cost). ~20% return 1–3×. ~10% return 10x+. Adjust by stage and quality.
Should I count my strike price?+
For options, subtract strike × shares from each outcome. For RSUs or founder stock, no strike applies.
How do I value pre-IPO outcomes?+
Use last preferred round valuation as a baseline, then discount 30–50% for common stock illiquidity.
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