Base — your inputs as-is
ARR in 12 mo
$2,497,251
ARR in 24 mo
$8,381,854
Net retention
99.0%
MRR projection
24 moMonthly table
| Mo | MRR | ARR | New | Exp | Churn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $57,500 | $690,000 | $8,000 | $1,000 | −$1,500 |
| 2 | $65,725 | $788,700 | $8,800 | $1,150 | −$1,725 |
| 3 | $74,748 | $896,973 | $9,680 | $1,315 | −$1,972 |
| 4 | $84,648 | $1,015,779 | $10,648 | $1,495 | −$2,242 |
| 5 | $95,515 | $1,146,175 | $11,713 | $1,693 | −$2,539 |
| 6 | $107,444 | $1,289,322 | $12,884 | $1,910 | −$2,865 |
| 7 | $120,542 | $1,446,499 | $14,172 | $2,149 | −$3,223 |
| 8 | $134,926 | $1,619,111 | $15,590 | $2,411 | −$3,616 |
| 9 | $150,725 | $1,808,704 | $17,149 | $2,699 | −$4,048 |
| 10 | $168,082 | $2,016,980 | $18,864 | $3,015 | −$4,522 |
| 11 | $187,151 | $2,245,810 | $20,750 | $3,362 | −$5,042 |
| 12 | $208,104 | $2,497,251 | $22,825 | $3,743 | −$5,615 |
| 13 | $231,131 | $2,773,567 | $25,107 | $4,162 | −$6,243 |
| 14 | $256,437 | $3,077,250 | $27,618 | $4,623 | −$6,934 |
| 15 | $284,253 | $3,411,037 | $30,380 | $5,129 | −$7,693 |
| 16 | $314,829 | $3,777,942 | $33,418 | $5,685 | −$8,528 |
| 17 | $348,440 | $4,181,280 | $36,760 | $6,297 | −$9,445 |
| 18 | $385,391 | $4,624,697 | $40,436 | $6,969 | −$10,453 |
| 19 | $426,017 | $5,112,202 | $44,479 | $7,708 | −$11,562 |
| 20 | $470,684 | $5,648,207 | $48,927 | $8,520 | −$12,781 |
| 21 | $519,797 | $6,237,565 | $53,820 | $9,414 | −$14,121 |
| 22 | $573,801 | $6,885,613 | $59,202 | $10,396 | −$15,594 |
| 23 | $633,185 | $7,598,224 | $65,122 | $11,476 | −$17,214 |
| 24 | $698,488 | $8,381,854 | $71,634 | $12,664 | −$18,996 |
AI explainer
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About
Project ARR over 24 months using new-MRR growth, expansion, and churn. Built to answer 'where will we be by next year?' without spreadsheet gymnastics.
How it works
- 01Each month: end MRR = start MRR + new MRR + expansion − churn.
- 02New MRR compounds by your growth rate each month.
- 03Expansion and churn are applied as a % of starting MRR.
- 04ARR at any month = MRR × 12.
Examples
From $600k to $3M ARR
$50k starting MRR, $8k new MRR/month growing 10%, 2% expansion, 3% churn. Hits ~$250k MRR (~$3M ARR) by month 24.
Net revenue retention
Expansion − churn = NRR-100. Best-in-class SaaS hits 110%+ NRR; that alone doubles ARR every ~7 years without new customers.
FAQ
What if my growth isn't compounding?+
Set growth to 0% — then 'new MRR' stays flat each month. Realistic for hardware-style sales cycles.
Is this the same as cohort forecasting?+
No — cohort analysis tracks each month's signups separately. This is a simpler top-down model. Good enough for a one-pager, not for a board doc.
Should I use gross or net churn?+
Use gross churn here so expansion is counted separately. Don't double-count.